New York City families race to buy homes in Connecticut as Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral rise sparks exit anxiety
As the campaign for New York City’s mayor accelerates toward its November tipping point, a surprising ripple is being felt north of the city line. In upscale suburbs of Connecticut and Westchester County, real-estate agents report an unusual surge of interest from Manhattan residents who seem to be hedging against the outcome they fear most: a win by assemblyman Zohran Mamdani. In Greenwich, for example, veteran agent Joy Metalios said she answered so many requests from Big Apple families in one day that she simply stopped counting.
The typical autumn calm in Fairfield County’s housing market has given way to bidding wars and all-cash offers, often months ahead of schedule. Listings that once sat idle are now being snapped up in days. One Scarsdale home drew 24 separate bids and sold for more than $700,000 above asking. Such extreme activity appears tied not just to traditional drivers like low inventory or stock-market wealth, but now to a political undercurrent: the prospect of New York City being governed by a progressive candidate promising sweeping tax increases and structural changes.
Mamdani, who holds a wide lead in polling among Democratic voters, has campaigned on fare-free buses, rent freezes, city-run grocery stores and higher taxes on the wealthy. While his supporters say these platforms represent overdue social justice, some business and real-estate interests interpret them as a red flag. One Manhattan broker described a prospective buyer who demanded a so-called “Mamdani discount” on a property, anticipating a drop in Manhattan valuations if the candidate wins.
In Connecticut, many high-net-worth buyers appear to be acting on a different calculus entirely: shielding assets, avoiding tax-policy surprises and securing homes in jurisdictions with lower left-leaning risk. In Greenwich, the number of homes listed over $10 million sold through August already far outpaced any previous year, setting records in one of America’s oldest suburbs. Brokers say this momentum is tied in part to political anxiety — the idea that the outcome of a municipal election in New York could ripple into the financial decisions of wealthier metro-area buyers.
While some of the migration is clearly cyclical or tied to lifestyle changes, multiple agents said the mayoral race was now appearing explicitly in conversations with clients. Halloween-nearing open houses in Connecticut included groups of Manhattan-based families, often led by real-estate advisors pointing to school systems, tax advantages and relative stability. “People are very concerned,” one agent said, as buyers expressed they would rather wait or exit Manhattan than engage now.
At the same time, the flight is symbolic. It suggests economic and social elites are watching local politics more closely than ever, considering relocation not as a lifestyle upgrade but as a pragmatic hedge. While the average New Yorker remains focused on affordability, transit and city services, this exodus framing reflects anxieties beneath the surface: what if the city pursues a radically different model?
For New York City, the trend raises questions about its future allure. If affluent residents continue to ‘vote with their feet,’ the tax base could shift, budgets could tighten and investment patterns may adjust. For Connecticut suburbs, it means an influx of capital, bidding pressure and potentially a faster-than-expected transformation of market norms.
As the November election looms, real-estate activity may become an inadvertent barometer of political confidence. The departures may not dominate headlines yet, but the buzz in Greenwich and Westchester suggests that one campaign’s iron-clad lead is more than a polling figure—it’s triggering real decisions in real lives.
